Our Prediction, Part I
Because of the particularly powerful and influential position the US have in the international arena, its unique role, every government, every intelligence agency throughout the world is very busy analyzing and determining who is most likely to be the next president, what would his/her policies be and how would that affect the world and particular country A, B or C.
At this point, the chances are that it's going to be Barack Obama. Only something astronomically scandalous could eventually sink his ship.
We believe, however, that if there was such a shocking truth about him, he wouldn't have tried to get elected in the first place.
So, how is it going to be with president Obama, 2009-2013 or rather 2017?
Our forecast is that he would be a very good president with a very good chance to be a great one. Why?
Because he would be strong, proactive and advancing American interests in the tough tough fashion his predecessors did back to Reagan, regardless of party affiliation.
1. The only problem we see in Barack Obama is his political origin, his past associations with some crazy leftist radicals, and his pandering to some of the left loons of the Dailykos/moveon (known also as the nutroots) mold.
All this, however, is typical political pandering as this is his traditional electorate. Once he gets into the White House, he would be as centrist and reasonable as is required by the job. He would pay lip service to the nutroots here and there, mostly on domestic issues, but that would be all.
He did and will do miscalculations here and there, of course, and everybody does it.
In the foreign policy arena, he would be as much of a hawk as it gets.
He gives us such hints in a very regular and methodical fashion:
- he says he won't just yank the troop out of Iraq, he caveats it with if Al Qaeda gets back there, we'll get back (and obviously al Qaeda will get back if US troops move out).
So, without saying it clearly, in practice Obama wouldn't withdraw the troops unless it is secure to do so. Simply because without US troops the situation there will destabilize dramatically, at least in the near future
- he is ok with missile defense "if it works" (and it works),
- he gave us a very good idea (at the AIPAC annual meeting) what his Middle East policy would be, as proactive and aggressive as any neocon would dream about
- he has already started appearing on Fox News, he promised to work with the republicans and we are confident he will. His pandering to the dailykos types to boycott Fox is over and for good.
- he picks for foreign policy advisors people such as Zbigniew Brzezinsky and Richard Hallbrooke, not to mention Wesley Clark, who are all as much foreign policy hawks as any neocon can possibly be, they just don't have the libel stamped on their foreheads
Obama and the father of all hawks, gen. Wesley Clarke. At the end of the Kosovo
War,1999, Clarke(top NATO commander at the time) wanted to confront the
Russian troops advancing toward the Pristina airport. A British general opposed
him, accusing him of starting World War III. Later, President Clinton forced
him out of office, months before he was supposed to retire.
- Obama said in an interview that when it comes to fighting terrorism, he is a hawk
- he supported the recently proposed FISA act, in its government (Bush 43) version, retroactively giving immunity to the telecommunication companies
- most importantly, during one of his interviews, Obama slipped up that Russia (with all its revanchist tendencies) would be one of the big, serious problems, which is absolutely true, of course, and comes to tell us that the good old Brzezinsky is somewhere around, educating the rookie. Zbigniew's daughter, Mika Brzezinsky is rooting for Obama on MSNBC like it is a life or death issue.
- equally important is the fact that Obama actually has foreign policy experience, he lived abroad, (in Indonesia) and then in the US so he can put two and two together and realize that the American system is the most successful and humane so far, and therefore it should be preserved at any cost. And as everybody can see he is a highly intelligent person.
As a professor at university, Obama communicated with those colleagues of his who were involved in foreign policy, both because of their respective specialties and consulting the government.
He was also involved in Sen. Lugar's work on Russian nukes safety, visited respective Russian facilities. Therefore, he has surely been extensively briefed on Russia by the intelligence community.
- Sen. Obama carefully hides his true positions on many important issues, talking vague, leaving doors open, etc.
Generalities, generalities, generalities. Yes, we can, change, change, change, that sort of election nonsense.
The main reason for this is that the left loons need not realize his true foreign policy priorities before he gets into office. He just gives hints so he would have the excuse later – see, I announced, during my campaign, what I stand for and you supported and elected me knowing what my policies would be. Sorry.
So the loons would be facing the alternative of either supporting him, his “idol”, or allowing some "nasty republican" kick him out after one term only. Again, the prospectives are not good. For the Che Guevarra nuts, that is.
In other words,
YES, YES, HE CAN!
Steer foreign policy just fine.
YES, YES, HE CAN!
Jilt the loony loons in time.
Predictions on Obama
